Poor Forecasting Record of CERA and IEA

Smoke and Mirrors
by Aage Figenshou

EnergyBulletin.net carries this article
http://energybulletin.net/26474.html

It is difficult to make predictions and one tends to shy away from criticizing other people’s incorrect forecasts. Next time it might be you making an error. However some people and organizations have such a high level of credibility and profile that they are trusted by politicians and captains of industry to deliver solid information. We know these institutions influence decisions that will impact global development. If these institutions year after year deliver bad data, and if they at the same time refuse to accept that something is wrong with their forecasting models, it is actually an important service to point this out. Important decision makers in politics and industry should know that what these institutions say about the future can not be relied upon as a solid basis for policymaking.

The article includes a highly detailed look at the horrible inaccuracy of recent forecasts by both the IEA and CERA. Figenshou concludes:

CERA has made it their task in life to debunk the peak oil myth. They claim that the resource base is plentiful and technology will solve all problems. Somehow many people listen. Would they listen as much if they knew the huge errors CERA has been making? How their forecasts, when analyzed and compared with other sources, look completely unrealistic? And that even based on their own forecast the spare capacity will actually only grow with 1 to 3 million b/d? If the global oil industry cannot do better than that after a decade of unprecedented oil prices, far above anybody’s marginal cost, it means something is terribly wrong with our ability to grow production. In this situation one does not need King Hubbard to understand that “Houston, we have a problem.”