Oil Survey Correct 54% Of Time

By Mark Shenk

Feb. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil may rise next week because of falling U.S. fuel stockpiles and the unexpected closure of some U.S. refineries in the past two weeks.

Seventeen of 39 analysts, traders and brokers, or 44 percent, said prices will increase, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Sixteen expected a decline and six forecast little change. Last week, 50 percent of respondents said futures may fall.

Crude oil for April delivery rose $1.28, or 2.1 percent, to $61.14 a barrel this week on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Today's closing price was the highest since Dec. 22.

The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of prices 54 percent of the time since it was introduced in April 2004.

Bloomberg's survey of oil analysts and traders, conductedeach Thursday, asks for an assessment of whether crude oilfutures are likely to rise, fall or remain neutral in the comingweek. The results were:

RISE NEUTRAL FALL
17 6 16