OPEC Output -840,000 B/D on Year

OPEC Output -840,000 B/D on Year, Inline vs. Past Wks
by Spencer Swartz
Aug 23, 2007

LONDON - Seaborne OPEC oil shipments are expected to jump by 610,000 barrels a day in the four weeks to Sept. 8 from the previous one-month period as some of the producer group's Middle East members respond to market calls for more crude, U.K. tanker tracker Oil Movements said Thursday.

The rise, the third in as many weeks, was also pinned to a weaker comparison in the month-ago period, when OPEC shipments were unseasonably low, said Roy Mason, head of the consultancy.

Shipments by Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are seen rising to a total of 24.2 million barrels a day versus 23.59 million barrels a day in the four weeks to Aug. 11, he said.

Mason said the last time OPEC shipments were at the current expected levels was in late April when they came in at 24.3 million barrels a day.

He maintained though that he didn't expect OPEC shipments to continue ramping up in the weeks ahead as milder autumn weather arrives in U.S. and European markets.

"We're now moving into the beginning of the period when refineries go into maintenance which normally means demand for crude goes down," he said.

Mason made a negligible reduction of 30,000 barrels a day to last week's data.

Sailings from key OPEC Middle East countries are forecast to increase by 540,000 barrels a day to 17.35 million barrels a day in the four weeks to Sept. 8 relative to the previous one-month period of 16.81 million barrels a day.

OPEC is currently pumping about 840,000 barrels a day fewer than at this time last year, Mason said, inline with the past couple of weeks, although well below about a month ago when OPEC had even more barrels out of the market at about 1.2 million barrels a day year-on-year.

OPEC is scheduled to meet in Vienna on Sept. 11 and indications from some OPEC ministers and officials are that the 12-nation group is likely to keep its production targets unchanged and not increase output, as the International Energy Agency has urged, due to concerns about high U.S. oil inventories and uncertainties over the fallout on energy demand caused by U.S. credit woes.

Oil Movements forecasts OPEC exports based on spot and term chartering of crude from OPEC member countries. Production from OPEC's 12 members meets around 40% of the 86 million barrels consumed globally each day.

OPEC Exports Seen Up 70,000 bpd

OPEC Exports Seen Up 70,000 bpd in 4 Weeks to March 24th
by Spencer Swartz
Mar 8, 2007

LONDON - Seaborne oil exports from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are seen rising by 70,000 barrels a day near the end of March compared with the previous four-week period, a leading U.K.-based tanker tracker said Thursday.

Oil Movements projected OPEC crude exports for the four weeks to March 24 to rise to 24.05 million barrels a day from 23.98 million barrels a day in the four weeks to Feb. 24.

Roy Mason, head of the tanker tracker consultancy, said shipments fell to Eastern markets while those to receivers in the West held steady.

Looking forward, Mason said he expects shipments to taper off because of the coming close of the northern hemisphere winter in coming weeks, when heating demand eases, but said continued declines in U.S. product inventories could lead to OPEC stepping up deliveries.

"Whether shipments fall off in the next few weeks very much hinges on whether (U.S. inventories of) products keep dropping. If they do, I think you can expect to see shipments hold steady or rise," he said.

A big surplus of product inventories that existed at the end of January has been nearly eliminated in past weeks by demand and reduced imports.

Mason said the 10 quota-bound OPEC members' compliance with the group's past two production cut decisions was about 1 million barrels a day compared with total targeted reductions of 1.7 million barrels a day.

The OPEC cuts have significantly tightened global oil market conditions, as has the return of seasonal winter weather fueling heating demand in the U.S. and Europe and recent data showing non-OPEC production from countries like Mexico undershooting analyst expectations.

Several OPEC ministers have said they believe the producer group will maintain its current production policy when they meet March 15 in Vienna as long as current oil prices remain. Oil prices Thursday in London traded at around $62.70 a barrel, safely above OPEC's price-comfort zone.

Oil Movements forecasts OPEC exports based on spot and term chartering of crude oil from OPEC group members, whose number grew to 12 in December with the addition of Angola. OPEC's production meets almost 40% of the 85 million barrels a day consumed globally. Iraq isn't part of OPEC's production policies.

© 2007 Dow Jones Newswires.