OPEC Says $80 Oil Won't

OPEC Says $80 Oil Won't Last Due to `Fundamentals'
Sept. 14 (Bloomberg)
By Fred Pals

OPEC, whose members produce more than 40 percent of the world's oil, said crude at $80 a barrel won't last because ``fundamentals'' don't support the price.

``I don't think the price will stay at $80,'' Secretary General Abdalla el-Badri said today at a press conference in Vienna. ``The fundamentals don't support that.'' The price of $80 a barrel is ``too high,'' he added.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries unexpectedly agreed to increase oil production by 500,000 barrels a day at a ministerial meeting in Vienna on Sept. 11. The increase, which will be added to the current 26.7 million-barrel-a-day output of 10 OPEC members, starts Nov. 1.

Oil prices gained after OPEC's decision to raise supply, when the U.S. Energy Department reported the country's stockpiles of crude fell more than expected last week. That suggested the increase may not be enough to meet demand as winter approaches in the Northern Hemisphere. Hurricane threats and an attack on Mexican pipelines have also driven up oil prices over the past few days.

Crude oil for October delivery traded down 18 cents at $79.96 a barrel at 9:06 a.m. local time on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract rose above $80 a barrel yesterday for the first time, touching $80.20.

December Meeting

El-Badri declined to comment on whether OPEC would discuss raising output again at its December meeting if crude prices remained near their current levels. ``Of course, we will discuss supply, demand and inventories, as usual,'' he said.

OPEC is not pursuing any specific price target or range, El- Badri said. ``It has been a long time ago since we've had a range,'' he said. OPEC having a specific target is ``rubbish.''

Angola, the African nation which joined OPEC on Jan. 1 this year as its 12th member, is expected to have a production quota next year, and El-Badri said he hopes to announce that level at OPEC's December meeting. He declined to comment on whether Angola would get a quota as soon as it reached production of 2 million barrels a day.

Exxon Mobil Corp., BP Plc and other international oil companies see Angola as a growth area. They're finding it harder to expand oil and gas production in other resource-rich countries such as Russia and Venezuela.

The Energy Report

The Energy Report
Phil Flynn
September 13, 2007

Oil at 80. Are the stars out tonight? I can’t tell if it’s cloudy or bright and that may depend on whether or not you're long oil. The bullish stars came into perfect alignment in an explosive trading session that sent oil out of this world. Oil surged to an all time not inflation adjusted high of $80.00 a barrel in a day that saw all the energy products soar.

Oil seemed on a mission to fulfill some technical destiny of $80.00 a barrel. It was a price level that was denied this summer as logistical issues kept oil undervalued for most of the summer. But sometimes things are written in the stars and the just wont be denied. It would be easy to point to yesterday’s wildly bullish inventory report as the main reason for the oil market's star search but in reality that was only a small part of the overall story. The market got just about anything a bull could want and perhaps even more.

Even before yesterday's inventory report the market had a strong upward bias. Oil had closed the day before at a record high as it laughed in the face of the OPEC production increase. Why did they raise production? Because OPEC cares. What they care about is a bit uncertain but they say they care all the same. Abdullah el-Badri, OPEC’s Secretary General, said that, “our message to consumers is that we are concerned and we care, and that is why we are raising production". Can you feel the love. Ah gee. OPEC cares about me! I feel special. And of course with OPEC - as always - the devil is in the details. And what you can sure about is what OPEC really cares about is covering their behind.

OPEC raised production because mainly they fear the backlash if the world goes into a recession. The IEA and the market have been sending signals to the cartel all summer that more oil was needed but they failed to act. Now OPEC has made a valiant effort by raising their quota from 25.845 million barrels a day to 27.2 million barrels a day which means that OPEC according to their math would be adding 500,000 barrels of oil. That’s not paper barrels but real oil for real men.

Yet because OPEC leaked its intentions early there was no surprise and the market discounted the oil as just replacing oil that was lost during the last two hurricanes. OPEC is proving once again that as a cartel they are very good at getting the price of oil from falling but they are always behind the curve and fail to stop prices from rising. Sometimes it is an issue of not having enough spare production capacity but many times it is because they are quick to cut but slow to raise production.

So then it was onto the weekly supply report from the Department of Energy. Would it give the bulls more reasons to buy! Well, before the stocks report even came out, natural gas bulls were already buying! This time it was because of the weather. A tropical wave that turned into a tropical storm Humberto caused havoc in the Gulf. The Houston shipping channel would close and there was talk that perhaps some oil rigs might be evacuated. Some weather experts fear that this active storm season will continue to cause more havoc and we may have to get prepared for one storm after another.

Then came the weekly inventory report. It was like a bullish dream. Crude supplies plunge 7.1 million barrels more than twice the average estimate. And that was and in all major categories. But even without the bullish report the mood for oil is bullish; decidedly bullish. The psychology after the OPEC announcement and the subsequent rally was a clear sign that the energy markets are poised to move higher.

Crude is convinced that a Fed rate cut is in store for next week and that should help keep the demand for oil much stronger than feared. The market is also showing that funds are getting an appetite for risk once again. Funds that fled from record long positions because they feared the housing slowdown perhaps are jumping back in. Even those without sub prime exposure fled from risk. Now they are coming back, a strong sign of confidence in our economic future.

Yes the backwardation being at near record levels could signal some slowing demand in the future but it also could signal a lessening of refiners worrying about geo-political risk. Let’s face it, with dealt with a lot of talk of the terror premium and war cutting off supply. Take yesterday, there was talk of the US making war plans against Iran and hardly anyone in the oil patch was talking about it.

Even talk about how Russian President Vladimir Putin rearranging the Russian Democracy in his own KGB image had little effect. No one in oil cared yet.

And we had a fire in Prudhoe Bay Alaska and cut production at a BP plant. We have refineries shutting down due to losing power in Texas we have it all. Aned this all means the bears are dancing in the streets.

Venezuelan Oil Output

OPEC Seeks to Bridge Gulf Over Venezuelan Oil Output
by Adam Smallman, Dow Jones Newswires
FWN Financial News 9/13/2007
URL: http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=50129
VIENNA, Sep 13, 2007

Staff from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have met with officials from member country Venezuela in a bid to bridge the gulf between the country's stated official oil production level and estimates a third lower by news agencies and institutions, a gap that some say has undermined the credibility of the Latin American nation's oil policies.

Fuad Al-Zayer, who leads OPEC's data services department, said Thursday that he and his colleagues were working closely with Venezuelan officials to narrow the differences to the point where OPEC no longer has to use secondary sources, such as energy information provided by Platts, a unit of McGraw-Hill Co. (MHP), or the Paris-based energy watchdog the International Energy Agency.

Dow Jones Newswires is also a provider of estimated oil output by OPEC member countries.

"We are there to provide them with facilities, to show them how they can coincide with what the secondary sources are saying," al-Zayer said after a press conference on OPEC energy data.

"But there is a gap between the two. We are hoping that they gap will become closer."

Venezuela has longed claimed its oil output is far higher than secondary sources suggest, with the official number around 3.2 million barrels a day, against estimates by Dow Jones Newswires, Platts and the IEA of around 2.4 million barrels a day.

Some analysts attribute the difference to the government of President Hugo Chavez covering up sharp oil production losses experienced in the wake of a clear-out of veteran staff from the state-run Petroleos de Venezuela S.A., or PdVSA, following a crippling strike in December 2002 that lasted two months.

The government subsequently said output levels rebounded to pre-strike levels of around 3.1 million barrels a day.

Some analysts have linked the stated production level to Venezuela's reluctance to lose its influence inside OPEC, which has output targets in place for 10 of its 12 members, including Venezuela.

Al-Zayer said Venezuela's production of heavy, tar-like crude oil may have colored the picture of its actual output.

"We know Venezuelan officials are meeting with Platts and the IEA to show them what's happening," al-Zayer said.

"Some of the problems are that heavy oil is produced in Venezuela and maybe some of the agencies don't count it. So we are trying to iron out this."

However, the International Energy Agency, as an example, clearly breaks out production of Venezuela's Orinoco-derived heavy crude, which it said in Wednesday's monthly oil market report contributed 475,000 barrels a day to Venezuela's output of 2.34 million barrels a day.

OPEC is incorporating secondary-sourced data in its estimates as "that is what the market believes in these days and eventually we hope that we won't do that in the future," Al-Zayer said.

Platts: OPEC Output Dips in August

Platts: OPEC Output Dips in August
Platts 9/7/2007
URL: http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=49966

OPEC crude production fell by 40,000 barrels per day (b/d) in August, to 30.46 million b/d from 30.5 million b/d in July, mainly because of lower exports from Iraq, a Platts survey showed September 7.

The ten members bound by production agreements, however, boosted output by 80,000 b/d, to 26.79 million b/d in August from 26.71 million b/d in July, the survey showed.

OPEC ministers meet in Vienna on September 11 to review the current agreement, which sets target output at 25.8 million b/d. Several ministers have said in the runup to the meeting that they do not see any need for the group to raise this target.

Actual OPEC-10 production has been steadily creeping up over the summer, however, and is now about a million barrels per day above the 25.8 million b/d target.

John Kingston, Global Director of Oil at Platts, said, "OPEC faces a real dilemma at its upcoming meeting. On the one hand, prices have climbed back up toward the $75 level, and the supply/demand balance projects a tight market in coming months, which might encourage OPEC to raise production. But when the organization looks at Friday's U.S. employment figures, and considers the ramifications of the US subprime mess, it will be concerned that a significant slowdown in demand could be around the corner. With that in mind, it is difficult to see a scenario in which it will vote to raise output, given that based on our survey, production is rising slightly regardless."

Apart from a small dip in Iranian production, the only significant decline came from Iraq. Iraqi exports had been boosted in July by the first liftings from Turkish Mediterranean port Ceyhan since January. There were no exports from Ceyhan in August, leaving Iraq to rely solely on its southern terminals. State oil marketer SOMO will sell 5 million barrels from Ceyhan in September, however, having built up stocks at the port.

Iraq, struggling to rebuild its oil industry after years of United Nations sanctions and a US-led war in 2003, does not participate in OPEC output pacts. Angola, which became a member in January this year, has yet to join the quota system.

Table in original article

OPEC oil output to rise in July

OPEC oil output to rise in July:
Petrologistics
Jul 25, 2007

OPEC oil output is expected to rise this month due to higher supply from members including Nigeria, Iraq and Angola, a consultant said on Wednesday.

OPEC's 10 members subject to output limits, all except Iraq and Angola, are expected to pump 26.9 million bpd, up from 26.8 million bpd in June, said Conrad Gerber, head of Petrologistics, which tracks tanker shipments.

The estimate, while showing rising supply in some OPEC countries, indicates top world exporter Saudi Arabia is keeping a cap on output in spite of a jump in oil prices towards a record high above $78 a barrel.

"There's no major opening of the taps," Gerber said. "They fear that if they opened the taps, prices would slide."

Nigeria is raising supply in July by about 100,000 bpd to 2.12 million bpd, Gerber said. The increase reflects fewer disruptions to the country's oil industry from militant attacks in the Niger Delta.

Iranian oil output is also on the increase -- climbing by 50,000 bpd to 3.95 million bpd, according to the Geneva-based company.

Overall supply from the 12-member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is set to rise 300,000 bpd to 30.7 million bpd, Petrologistics said, as Iraq and Angola pump more.

Iraqi output is on course to reach 2.08 million bpd, up from 1.94 million bpd in June, because the country is exporting some Kirkuk crude from its northern fields.

Storage tanks at the Turkish port of Ceyhan receive sporadic deliveries of Kirkuk by pipeline from Iraq's northern oilfields. Iraq sold 3 million barrels for shipment in July, the first such sale since January.

Angolan output, rising steadily as new fields off the country's coast come on stream, is on course to climb by 30,000 bpd to 1.69 million bpd in July.

By contrast, output in Saudi Arabia, OPEC's largest producer, is expected to hold steady at 8.6 million bpd, Petrologistics said.

OPEC, source of more than a third of the world's oil, agreed to curb supply by 1.7 million bpd, or about six percent, last year in two steps. The second stage took effect from February 1.

Despite July's rise from the 10 members party to the output curbs, output remains lower than when OPEC started cutting production in November. OPEC said the 10 were pumping 27.5 million bpd before the cutbacks began.

The exporter group is next scheduled to met in September to decide production policy.

OPEC Quotas May Bring In-Fighting in September

May 22, 2007
By John Troland, Tom Waterman

Houston, TX - At the September 2007 OPEC meeting there may be trouble brewing if expectations that Angola, the newest member of OPEC, is assigned a quota. With Angolan crude output on the rise from recent estimates of about 1.5 mbpd to more than 2.0 mbpd in the not too distant future, there will probably be requests from other OPEC producers of sweet crude such as Algeria, Libya and most importantly Nigeria, to increase their quota allotments. Currently Nigeria's quota is 2.044 mbpd with full production potential nearly 1.0 mbpd above that level, assuming militant actions in the Niger Delta were to cease.

Nigeria has for some time been a price hawk although at current levels, seem less concerned about its quota allotment than in past years. The government also appears less concerned about the lost production. We suspect that the central government, at the moment, is not overly concerned with the militant actions as it does keep prices at artificial levels. Market bulls are quick to point to lost production in Nigeria as a major factor, when other hype fails. They can point to Nigerian output of about 1.0 mbpd lost to ongoing strife in the country. But as we stated in an earlier article, the additional 1.0 mbpd would put Nigeria way over its quota.

As history has proven, OPEC members have little problem with each other when prices are high and moving higher, but when prices begin to fall, the cheating expands as member countries try to maintain a similar revenue flow. We suggest that this scenario is closer to happening than some analysts predict. Both Angola and Nigeria will continue to seek higher and higher quotas going forward. This puts the onus on major OPEC producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iran and others who continue to enjoy much larger quotas. Will the Saudis, in particular, be willing to cut back its quota enough to support high prices? An even bigger question is will other OPEC members show restraint in curbing production to quota levels?

The problems arise as Algeria, Angola, Libya and Nigeria do not have quotas proportionate to output. As we suggested earlier, OPEC history will repeat itself at some point in the not too distant future if the above mentioned countries are successful in getting higher quotas.

Our position is they will revert to cheating, which logic dictates they are probably engaged in right now. This will eventually lead to the same problem we had last summer as the crude oil market was flooded. With the possible exception of Saudi Arabia and perhaps Kuwait, the rest of OPEC countries are cheating now if they have the capacity to overproduce. We are approaching the saturation level where crude oil is ample and if the situation persists, the fight will be on for the last buyer of crude oil.

While tanker charters and other market barometers often measure crude shipments, they do not measure the amount of crude oil available. Countries will store excess production and hope to sell it at elevated levels somewhere down the road. OPEC never does well in a down market. This is why there is nothing but silence from the cartel recently. They do not wish to upset the apple cart. Just as the majors in the U.S. are really not to blame for the current market prices, they are enjoying the profit margins, and are really not interested in seeing a change from the status quo. Every oil company executive knows that speculation is driving this market, but they won't say it publicly, even as many face hearings in Washington on the subject of gasoline prices. Right now, the volatility favors the oil companies, so don't expect any complaining.

Ever wonder why we have not run out of gasoline? There are no lines at retail outlets anywhere in the country at the present time. Neither do we hear about signs posted saying "We're Out of Gas!" The hype just keeps things moving up.