Forecasters Predict Five Major Hurricanes

By Courtney Dentch (Bloomberg)

Colorado State University forecasters said five major hurricanes will form this season, and there's a 74 percent chance a storm will make landfall in the U.S.

The forecast released today reiterates the team's April prediction for above-average tropical activity during the Atlantic season, which officially starts tomorrow. Ten storms and six hurricanes have formed, on average, during the June-November season over the last 50 years.

Five major hurricanes, with winds of at least 111 mph (179 kilometers per hour), will grow out of the 17 total storms expected to form, researchers Philip Klotzbach and William Gray said in their outlook. Nine of the storms will become hurricanes, with winds of at least 74 mph, they said.

``We expect an above-average hurricane season with El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions on the cool side, which will help increase the likelihood of major storm activity in the Atlantic,'' Klotzbach said in a statement.

Cooling Pacific Ocean temperatures, part of La Nina conditions, are expected to drive storm formation, while warm Atlantic waters will provide fuel. La Nina is the opposite of El Nino, when Pacific temperatures rise above historical averages, and both conditions can affect weather patterns around the globe.

The Colorado State report echoes other predictions for a more active tropical season this year, after outlooks overestimated last year's near-normal activity. Experts forecast an average of 16 storms and four major hurricanes.

One system, Andrea, formed off the southeastern U.S. coast about three weeks before the official start of the season, although it didn't strike land.

The forecast comes as a Mason-Dixon poll found that 53 percent of residents along the U.S. Gulf and East coasts don't feel vulnerable to a hurricane or related flooding, and 88 percent haven't taken steps to reinforce their homes. The survey included 1,100 adults from May 10 to 15, and was commissioned by the National Hurricane Survival Initiative.

``Nearly two years after Hurricane Katrina shocked and horrified the nation, far too many residents are still unprepared for storms,'' said Bill Proenza, director of the Miami-based National Hurricane Center. ``Last year's below-normal hurricane season may have resulted in coastal residents being lulled into a false sense of complacency.''

Last year was the first time since 2001 and the 11th time since 1945 that no hurricane made landfall in the U.S. Three tropical storms did come ashore, causing at least five deaths and $500 million in damage, according to the center.

It was expected to be an active season, although less active than 2005, when 28 storms formed, including Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma. A late El Nino weather pattern in the Pacific Ocean, where equatorial waters warmed patterns of air circulation, and dryness in the tropical Atlantic atmosphere curtailed storm formation.