OPEC Exports Seen Up 70,000 bpd

OPEC Exports Seen Up 70,000 bpd in 4 Weeks to March 24th
by Spencer Swartz
Mar 8, 2007

LONDON - Seaborne oil exports from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are seen rising by 70,000 barrels a day near the end of March compared with the previous four-week period, a leading U.K.-based tanker tracker said Thursday.

Oil Movements projected OPEC crude exports for the four weeks to March 24 to rise to 24.05 million barrels a day from 23.98 million barrels a day in the four weeks to Feb. 24.

Roy Mason, head of the tanker tracker consultancy, said shipments fell to Eastern markets while those to receivers in the West held steady.

Looking forward, Mason said he expects shipments to taper off because of the coming close of the northern hemisphere winter in coming weeks, when heating demand eases, but said continued declines in U.S. product inventories could lead to OPEC stepping up deliveries.

"Whether shipments fall off in the next few weeks very much hinges on whether (U.S. inventories of) products keep dropping. If they do, I think you can expect to see shipments hold steady or rise," he said.

A big surplus of product inventories that existed at the end of January has been nearly eliminated in past weeks by demand and reduced imports.

Mason said the 10 quota-bound OPEC members' compliance with the group's past two production cut decisions was about 1 million barrels a day compared with total targeted reductions of 1.7 million barrels a day.

The OPEC cuts have significantly tightened global oil market conditions, as has the return of seasonal winter weather fueling heating demand in the U.S. and Europe and recent data showing non-OPEC production from countries like Mexico undershooting analyst expectations.

Several OPEC ministers have said they believe the producer group will maintain its current production policy when they meet March 15 in Vienna as long as current oil prices remain. Oil prices Thursday in London traded at around $62.70 a barrel, safely above OPEC's price-comfort zone.

Oil Movements forecasts OPEC exports based on spot and term chartering of crude oil from OPEC group members, whose number grew to 12 in December with the addition of Angola. OPEC's production meets almost 40% of the 85 million barrels a day consumed globally. Iraq isn't part of OPEC's production policies.

© 2007 Dow Jones Newswires.